Data pipeline, causal discovery and DAG
To ensure utmost data integrity and fairness, our models learn from and are trained on free, public, trusted, and verified data sources referenced below.
This is what we’re forecasting and explaining the movements of.
Role in the framework: Target variable.
How hard refineries are running.
Role in the framework. Supply-side driver.
Crude oil going into refineries, before it becomes a specific product
Role in the framework. Upstream shared cause.
Product-specific volumes once refining is done
Role in the framework. Supply-side driver.
Raw domestic extraction, upstream of everything else
Role in the framework. Upstream shared cause.
Barrels sitting in storage, by fuel
Role in the framework. Supply-side driver.
Cross-border flows, by fuel
Role in the framework. Supply-side driver.
How much the economy is producing: output, factory activity, and sentiment
How much people are actually driving: the strongest observed driver of gasoline and jet demand
Inflation and the cost of borrowing
What refiners pay for crude oil, before refining
What drivers pay at the pump: downstream of everything else
Bulk benchmark prices traders and refiners deal in, upstream of the pump
The dollar's broad strength
National population-weighted heating/cooling demand proxy
